Viendo archivo del domingo, 17 enero 2010
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 Jan 17 2201 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 017 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Jan 2010IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1040 (N30W74)
produced two flares during the past 24 hours. The largest of these
was a B6.1 at 17/2025Z. Region 1040 continued to slowly decay as it
neared the west limb, while retaining its beta configuration. A
flare and subsequent EUVI wave was observed near the southeast limb
on STEREO-B EUVI imagery at 17/0356Z. SOHO EIT C2 imagery showed a
CME off the east limb.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares remain possible, as well as a
slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active levels
possible at high latitudes, as a coronal hole high-speed stream
moves into a geoeffective position late on day one (18 January) and
continuing into day two (19 January). Quiet levels are expected to
return on day three (20).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Jan a 20 Jan
| Clase M | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Jan 083 Previsto 18 Jan-20 Jan 083/083/080 Media de 90 Días 17 Jan 075
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Jan 001/001 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Jan 001/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 006/007-007/007-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Jan a 20 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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