Viendo archivo del miércoles, 24 junio 2009

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2009 Jun 24 2201 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 175 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Jun 2009

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours. Region 1023 (S23E01) continues to be the only spotted region on the disk and was stable and quiet.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the past 24 hours. In particular, active periods were observed between 0300-0900Z and 1800-2100Z. Solar wind signatures showed a change to slightly disturbed conditions beginning around 0300Z and lasting through the period: the magnetic field intensity increased, the Bz component of the solar wind showed occasional moderate fluctuations with peak negative values around -10 nT early in the day, and around -20 nT later in the day. In addition the spiral angle phi indicated two possible sector boundary changes. During the last 12 hours of the period solar wind velocity was gradually increasing. The signatures late in the day were consistent with the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally unsettled with a chance for active periods for the first day (25 June) as the current disturbance continues. Activity levels are expected to decline to generally quiet levels for the second and third days (26-27 June).
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Jun a 27 Jun
Clase M01%01%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       24 Jun 067
  Previsto   25 Jun-27 Jun  068/068/068
  Media de 90 Días        24 Jun 070
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 23 Jun  005/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 24 Jun  012/011
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Jun a 27 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%05%05%
Tormenta Menor05%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%05%05%
Tormenta Menor15%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%

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