Viendo archivo del lunes, 15 enero 2007

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2007 Jan 15 2204 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 015 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Jan 2007

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z

Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 938 (N02E35) is the only spotted region on the visible disk. This region produced multiple B-class flares today along with a C1/Sf event occurring at 15/0308Z. A decay in the sunspot area was observed during the period. Observations indicate that there is some magnetic complexity in the leading portion of this beta sunspot group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Isolated C-class events from Region 938 remain possible.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream became geoeffective at approximately 15/0700Z. Middle and high latitudes experienced major storm conditions between 15/1200 and 1500Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels on 16 and 17 January. Isolated minor to major storm conditions are possible on these two days due to a recurrent coronal hole. A return to predominantly unsettled levels is expected on 18 January as the coronal hole wanes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Jan a 18 Jan
Clase M10%05%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       15 Jan 082
  Previsto   16 Jan-18 Jan  080/080/080
  Media de 90 Días        15 Jan 084
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 14 Jan  002/002
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 15 Jan  015/020
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  015/020-012/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Jan a 18 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%25%20%
Tormenta Menor15%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%35%30%
Tormenta Menor20%20%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%15%10%

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