Viendo archivo del sábado, 16 diciembre 2006

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Dec 16 2234 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 350 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Dec 2006

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z

Solar activity declined to very low levels today. Region 930 (S06W72) remains a magnetically complex region. Some decay was noted in the penumbra of the delta structure in the southern portion of the large asymmetrical sunspot. Several minor B-class flares were observed during the period from Region 930. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 930 remains capable of producing an isolated X-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated conditions were due to the lingering effects of the transient resulting from the X3 flare that occurred on 13 December. A shock passage was observed at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 16/1722Z which was followed by a Sudden Impulse at the Boulder magnetometer at 16/1756Z (13 nT). This latest disturbance is associated with the X1 flare that occurred on 14 December. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from active to major storm levels with isolated severe storm conditions possible on 17 December due to the effects of today's transient passage. A return to quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 18 and 19 December.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Dec a 19 Dec
Clase M60%25%10%
Clase X25%05%01%
Protón25%05%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       16 Dec 082
  Previsto   17 Dec-19 Dec  080/075/075
  Media de 90 Días        16 Dec 081
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 15 Dec  048/104
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 16 Dec  010/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  030/040-008/010-004/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Dec a 19 Dec
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%20%15%
Tormenta Menor35%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa35%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%25%20%
Tormenta Menor40%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa35%05%01%

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