Viendo archivo del viernes, 15 diciembre 2006

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Dec 15 2204 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 349 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Dec 2006

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 930 (S06W59) produced an X1.5/2B solar flare with a 510 sfu 10 cm radio burst at 14/2215Z. Type II (1277 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps were associated with this event. The flare was accompanied by a frontside, asymmetrical, full halo CME with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 900 km/s. Ejecta of this CME seems to be predominately from the southwest sector of the halo.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Isolated X-class flares from Region 930 remain a possibility.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field reached severe storm levels. A 100 MeV proton event commenced 14/2255Z, reached a 2.3 pfu maximum at 15/0015Z and ended 15/0325Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that commenced 13/0310Z, reached a 698 pfu maximum at 13/0925Z and ended at 15/1620Z. The greater than 2 MeV electrons reached high levels today. Solar wind speed has decreased to 600 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach major to severe storm levels. A glancing blow from the CME late in the day of 14 December is expected to impact the geomagnetic field by mid to late UTC on day one of the forecast period (December 16). Minor to major storm levels are expected to continue into December 17. The disturbance is expected to abate to quiet to unsettled conditions for the final day of the forecast period (December 18).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Dec a 18 Dec
Clase M65%65%65%
Clase X35%35%35%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       15 Dec 087
  Previsto   16 Dec-18 Dec  090/090/090
  Media de 90 Días        15 Dec 081
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 14 Dec  030/063
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 15 Dec  060/100
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec  040/045-045/070-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Dec a 18 Dec
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%10%30%
Tormenta Menor35%35%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa50%50%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo05%05%30%
Tormenta Menor30%30%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa60%60%10%

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