Viendo archivo del martes, 12 diciembre 2006
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Dec 12 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 346 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Dec 2006IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 930 (S06W21) only
produced B-class activity, however, it remains a complex beta gamma
delta magnetic group. This region has increased in area to
approximately 680 millionths.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for M-flare activity from Region 930.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with isolated minor
storm periods. Activity was due to enhanced solar wind speeds
coupled with prolonged periods of southward Bz. The greater than 10
MeV proton event crossed below 10 pfu's at 12/1040 UTC. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 13 December. On 14 December, quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected with isolated active periods
possible. On 15 December, quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Dec a 15 Dec
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Dec 102 Previsto 13 Dec-15 Dec 100/100/100 Media de 90 Días 12 Dec 081
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Dec 011/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Dec 012/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 010/015-008/010-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Dec a 15 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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