Viendo archivo del viernes, 8 diciembre 2006

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Dec 08 2204 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 342 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Dec 2006

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Region 930 (S05E32) has produced only B-class activity during the past 24 hours. Region 930 is no longer as magnetically complex and now has a Beta-Gamma configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a chance for M-class activity from Region 930.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. Transient flow from the CME associated with the X9 event on 05 December was observed at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 08/0400Z. The IMF Bz component ranged between approximately +/- 10 nT. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 06/1555Z continues, but is on the decline. The maximum observed flux so far is 1980 pfu at 07/1930Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 07/0115Z continues, but is also on the decline. The maximum observed flux so far is 19 pfu at 07/1610Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels with isolated major storm periods on 09 December due to CME activity associated with the M6 and X6 flares of 06 December. Expect unsettled to active conditions on 10 - 11 December. The greater than 10 Mev proton event is expected to end late on 09 December. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end within the next 12 hours.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Dec a 11 Dec
Clase M35%35%35%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón80%30%05%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       08 Dec 096
  Previsto   09 Dec-11 Dec  095/095/095
  Media de 90 Días        08 Dec 081
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 07 Dec  014/025
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 08 Dec  025/030
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  040/050-020/025-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Dec a 11 Dec
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%30%20%
Tormenta Menor40%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%35%30%
Tormenta Menor45%20%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa30%10%05%

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