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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Dec 07 2210 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 341 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Dec 2006

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 930 (S06E45) produced an M2 flare at 07/1913Z with a 2600 sfu Tenflare. The M2 flare had an associated CME observed on the Mk4 K-Coronameter at Mauna Loa Solar Observatory. Region 930 remains a complex moderate-sized sunspot group with a beta-gamma-delta configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 930 is expected to produce further M-class flares and there is a good chance for X-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods observed at high latitudes. Solar wind speed is unknown as the recent solar energetic proton events have contaminated the ACE SWEPAM instrument, a condition expected to continue until energetic proton fluxes subside. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 06/1555Z continues. The maximum observed flux so far is 1980 pfu at 07/1930Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux crossed the 1 pfu event threshold at 07/0115Z, with a maximum observed flux so far of 19 pfu at 07/1610Z. The greater then 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels with a chance for major storm periods for the next three days (08 - 10 December). Although the magnetic cloud associated with the X9 flare and CME observed on 05 December is not expected to impact earth, a shock passage is likely; consequently, active to minor storm periods are expected on 08 December. CME activity associated with the M6 and X6 flares on 06 December is expected to cause occasional major storm periods late on 08 December and 09 December. Disturbed conditions are expected to continue through 10 December. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through 09 December. The greater then 100 MeV proton event appears to have peaked and, barring another injection of high energy protons, the event should end on 08 December.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Dec a 10 Dec
Clase M85%85%85%
Clase X40%40%40%
Protón99%80%65%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       07 Dec 096
  Previsto   08 Dec-10 Dec  100/100/100
  Media de 90 Días        07 Dec 080
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 06 Dec  015/028
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 07 Dec  020/030
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec  030/030-040/050-030/040
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Dec a 10 Dec
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%25%30%
Tormenta Menor30%40%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%20%15%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%25%35%
Tormenta Menor35%45%35%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%30%25%

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