Viendo archivo del domingo, 19 marzo 2006

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Mar 19 2203 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 078 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Mar 2006

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z

Solar activity continues at very low levels. No significant activity was observed during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm levels. The elevated activity is due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. Early in the period, the solar wind speeds increased from 550 km/sec to over 650 km/sec. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained predominantly southward for several hours prior to the occurrence of the major storm conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels on 20 March due to continued coronal hole effects. Predominantly unsettled conditions are expected on 21 March as the coronal hole wanes. Quiet levels are expected on 22 March.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Mar a 22 Mar
Clase M01%01%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       19 Mar 075
  Previsto   20 Mar-22 Mar  075/075/075
  Media de 90 Días        19 Mar 080
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 18 Mar  015/026
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 19 Mar  026/040
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar  012/020-010/012-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Mar a 22 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%20%15%
Tormenta Menor10%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo45%30%20%
Tormenta Menor20%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%05%01%

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