Viendo archivo del sábado, 17 septiembre 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Sep 17 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 260 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Sep 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 808 (S11W50) produced
an M9/2n flare at 0605 UTC. The event included a radio burst of
1,000 sfu at 2695 MHz (tenflare) plus additional bursts across the
spectrum. The event apparently did not include a CME. The region,
though still potent, has declined in white light and simplified
slightly in its magnetic structure. Newly assigned Region 810
(N10E78) rotated into view.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 808, though decaying, is still capable of
energetic activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
geosynchronous electron flux was at very high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled for the next three days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Sep a 20 Sep
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Sep 104 Previsto 18 Sep-20 Sep 100/095/095 Media de 90 Días 17 Sep 093
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Sep 011/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Sep 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 010/010-010/010-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Sep a 20 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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