Viewing archive of jueves, 15 septiembre 2005

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Sep 15 2204 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 258 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Sep 2005

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 808 (S11W22) produced an X1.1/2n flare at 15/0838 UTC with an associated 450 sfu Tenflare. This region was also responsible for several C and low M-class flares throughout the period. Region 808 has changed very little in the last 24 hours and retains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels. Region 808 is expected to continue to produce M-class activity and still has the potential to produce an isolated X-flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm levels. Geomagnetic storming occurred in response to the arrival of a CME associated with the double peak X-flare on 13 September. A 29 nT sudden impulse was observed in the Boulder magnetometer at 15/0907 UTC. Solar wind speed at ACE rose from approximately 600 km/s to near 900 km/s. The most disturbed periods occurred between 12 and 18 UTC following periods of southward Bz to near -15 nT. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux increased during the shock passage to 235 pfu before declining to around 13 pfu by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels with the possibility of isolated major storm periods. Conditions should decrease to quiet to unsettled on 17 and 18 September.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Sep a 18 Sep
Clase M70%65%60%
Clase X50%40%30%
Protón50%40%30%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       15 Sep 119
  Previsto   16 Sep-18 Sep  115/110/110
  Media de 90 Días        15 Sep 092
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 14 Sep  013/025
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 15 Sep  025/050
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  018/025-008/015-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Sep a 18 Sep
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%20%20%
Tormenta Menor20%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%30%25%
Tormenta Menor30%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%05%01%

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