Viendo archivo del jueves, 15 septiembre 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Sep 15 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 258 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Sep 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 808 (S11W22) produced
an X1.1/2n flare at 15/0838 UTC with an associated 450 sfu Tenflare.
This region was also responsible for several C and low M-class
flares throughout the period. Region 808 has changed very little in
the last 24 hours and retains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at moderate to high levels. Region 808 is expected to continue to
produce M-class activity and still has the potential to produce an
isolated X-flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm levels.
Geomagnetic storming occurred in response to the arrival of a CME
associated with the double peak X-flare on 13 September. A 29 nT
sudden impulse was observed in the Boulder magnetometer at 15/0907
UTC. Solar wind speed at ACE rose from approximately 600 km/s to
near 900 km/s. The most disturbed periods occurred between 12 and 18
UTC following periods of southward Bz to near -15 nT. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux increased during the shock passage to 235
pfu before declining to around 13 pfu by the end of the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels with the
possibility of isolated major storm periods. Conditions should
decrease to quiet to unsettled on 17 and 18 September.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Sep a 18 Sep
| Clase M | 70% | 65% | 60% |
| Clase X | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Protón | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Sep 119 Previsto 16 Sep-18 Sep 115/110/110 Media de 90 Días 15 Sep 092
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Sep 013/025 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Sep 025/050 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 018/025-008/015-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Sep a 18 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 01% |
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