Viendo archivo del miércoles, 14 septiembre 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Sep 14 2216 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 257 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Sep 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity continues at high levels. An impulsive
X1.7/1b flare was observed at 13/2322 UTC from Region 808 (S11W10).
This flare occurred during the decay phase of yesterdays double peak
X1 proton flare. This X1.7 event had an associated 180 sfu tenflare.
Region 808 exhibited little change over the past 24 hours and still
maintains a strong beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 808 has the potential for further M and
X-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Minor
storm conditions were the result of elevated solar wind speeds and
long periods of southward Bz in the IMF. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux crossed the 10 pfu event threshold at 14/0040 UTC in
response to an influx of energetic particles from the recent X1
flares late on 13 September. This new proton enhancement reached a
maximum of 183 pfu at 14/1520 UTC before declining to around 50 pfu
by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to reach major to severe storm levels on 15 September
following the anticipated arrival of the CME associated with the 13
September X1 flares. Minor storm to major storm periods are possible
on 16 September decreasing to mostly unsettled by 17 September. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event may increase temporarily with the
shock arrival.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Sep a 17 Sep
| Clase M | 75% | 70% | 65% |
| Clase X | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Protón | 99% | 60% | 40% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Sep 117 Previsto 15 Sep-17 Sep 110/110/105 Media de 90 Días 14 Sep 092
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Sep 026/051 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Sep 018/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 050/075-018/030-008/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Sep a 17 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 70% | 20% | 05% |
< < Ir a la visión general diaria
Últimas noticias
lunes, 22 abril 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
sábado, 23 marzo 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
miércoles, 20 marzo 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Últimos mensajes del foro
AR 3637, 3638, 3643 69Space Weather Memes 337Unproven theories 340Filaments and prominences 55Growth of Cycle 25 433
Más temasApoye a SpaceWeatherLive.com!
Mucha gente viene a SpaceWeatherLive para seguir la actividad del Sol o previsión de aurora, pero con esta cantidad de tráfico se incrementan los costos del servidor. ¡Considere hacer una donación si disfruta de SpaceWeatherLive para que podamos mantener el sitio web en línea!
Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 2024/04/23 | M2.9 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 2024/04/19 | Kp7 (G3) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 2022/06/08 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| marzo 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Last 30 days | 124.7 +19.1 |