Viendo archivo del jueves, 25 agosto 2005

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Aug 25 2204 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 237 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Aug 2005

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 803 (N12E67) produced an impulsive M6/1n flare at 0440 UTC. The event was associated with a CME off the east limb. Region 800 (N17W35) is currently the largest on the disk but was quiet and stable. New Region 804 (N11E12) emerged on the disk today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 800 or Region 803 during the next three days (26-28 August).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly at active to minor storm levels. Today's solar wind data was generally consistent with a coronal hole stream: velocities were elevated and the magnetic field indicated ongoing wave-like fluctuations. The speed gradually declined from initial values around 730 km/s to day-end values around 620 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 22/2040 UTC ended today at 25/0040 UTC. The peak flux was 330 PFU at 23/1045 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods for 26 August. Conditions should be generally unsettled for 27-28 August.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Aug a 28 Aug
Clase M20%20%20%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       25 Aug 092
  Previsto   26 Aug-28 Aug  095/095/090
  Media de 90 Días        25 Aug 094
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 24 Aug  072/110
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 25 Aug  020/025
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  015/015-010/008-010/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Aug a 28 Aug
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%30%30%
Tormenta Menor20%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%10%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%20%20%
Tormenta Menor15%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%

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