Viendo archivo del lunes, 22 agosto 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Aug 22 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 234 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Aug 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 798 (S11W62) produced
an M5/1n at 22/1727 UTC. This flare was associated with significant
radio output that included a 7100 sfu burst at 2695 MHz, 22000 sfu
at 245 MHz, and type IV sweep activity. This region also produced an
M2/1f flare at 22/0133 UTC that included significant radio output.
Both flares were associated with apparent earth-directed CMEs.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Another major flare is possible in Region 798.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. This activity is believed to be the result of a high-speed
coronal hole stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux passed the
10 pfu event threshold at 22/2040 UTC. This event resulted from the
M5 flare discussed in Part IA. Today's observed Penticton 10.7 flux
was flare enhanced. The daily background value reported in Part IV
was estimated to be 105 sfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for
the next 24 hours. Storm conditions are possible on Aug 24 and 25
due to the CME activity which occurred today. The greater than 10
MeV proton event is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Aug a 25 Aug
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 80% | 20% | 10% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Aug 157 Previsto 23 Aug-25 Aug 105/105/100 Media de 90 Días 22 Aug 094
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Aug 005/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Aug 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 010/010-020/025-020/035
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Aug a 25 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 50% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 60% | 60% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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