Viendo archivo del lunes, 11 julio 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jul 11 2200 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 192 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Jul 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 786 (N09W57) produced a
C8 flare at 11/1508 UTC and has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic
classification. Region 789 (N16W12) continued to decay and is now
an Eao Beta group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a chance for an M-class event from Region 786.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Sustained southward Bz following the shock arrival on 09 July
resulted in minor storming during the period 0600 - 0900 UTC. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for
isolated minor storm conditions on 12 July due to the arrival of a
transient from the CME associated with the M2 flare on 09 July.
Predominantly unsettled conditions are expected on 13 and 14 July.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Jul a 14 Jul
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Jul 093 Previsto 12 Jul-14 Jul 090/090/085 Media de 90 Días 11 Jul 097
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Jul 028/047 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Jul 022/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 025/025-010/012-005/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Jul a 14 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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