Viendo archivo del sábado, 9 julio 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jul 09 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 190 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Jul 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's largest event was a C2
flare at 1027 UTC from Region 786 (N11W31). Region 789 (N18E15)
produced a C1 flare at 2045 UTC. Region 783 (S03W75) grew in size
but has simplified to a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 786 may produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Active conditions
followed a period of sustained southward Bz. At approximately 0500
UTC, Bz turned south and varied between -5 and -10 nT. At the time
of issue, Bz remains south.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated periods
of minor storm conditions for 10 July due to the effects of CME
activity observed on 7 July. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on 11 and 12 July.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Jul a 12 Jul
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Jul 107 Previsto 10 Jul-12 Jul 105/105/100 Media de 90 Días 09 Jul 097
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Jul 005/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Jul 015/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 020/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Jul a 12 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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