Viendo archivo del jueves, 7 julio 2005

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jul 07 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 188 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Jul 2005

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 786 (N12W04) produced an M4.9/Sn flare at 07/1629 UTC. This event also had an associated 180 sfu Tenflare and a full halo CME, which was observed by LASCO imagery. Region 786 has grown in both white light area coverage and sunspot count, and has maintained its magnetic delta configuration. Two other events were observed by LASCO imagery earlier in the period. The first was a faint partial halo event which was first observed at 06/2126 UTC. Data for this event indicates it is probably a back-sided event and not Earth directed. The second event was a CME observed with a possible partial halo beginning around 07/1250 UTC. This event was likely associated with an 11 degree long disappearing filament centered at N07E00 between 07/1033 - 1148 UTC.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 786 is capable of producing an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated periods of minor storm conditions. Activity is expected due to possible effects from the CME observed on 05 July, a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream, today's M4 halo CME, and the CME associated with the disappearing filament centered at N07E00.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Jul a 10 Jul
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       07 Jul 125
  Previsto   08 Jul-10 Jul  120/120/115
  Media de 90 Días        07 Jul 096
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 06 Jul  003/005
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 07 Jul  005/007
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  015/025-020/030-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Jul a 10 Jul
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%35%35%
Tormenta Menor10%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%45%40%
Tormenta Menor20%25%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%10%

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