Viendo archivo del viernes, 1 julio 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jul 01 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 182 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Jul 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's largest event was a C5 at 0502 UTC from newly numbered
Region 786 (N13E76). The event was associated with a type II radio
sweep and a small, narrow CME off the east limb. There was one
additional C-flare today; a C1 at 1256 UTC from Region 782 (S17W18).
Region 782 and 783 (S03E33) both showed noteworthy growth during the
past 24 hours. New Region 787 (S09W22) emerged on the disk during
the day as a small B-type group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
during the next three days (02-04 July), but there is a slight
chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active, but there was a
minor storm period from 1500-1800 UTC. Solar wind data indicate the
onset of a high speed stream from a coronal hole, beginning at about
1200 UTC. Solar wind speed at the end of the analysis period had
reached about 500 km/s and was steadily increasing.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the first day (02 July), with a
chance for isolated minor storm periods. Conditions should decline
to unsettled to active for the second day (03 July), and should be
predominantly unsettled for the third day (04 July).
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Jul a 04 Jul
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Jul 115 Previsto 02 Jul-04 Jul 120/120/125 Media de 90 Días 01 Jul 094
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Jun 004/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Jul 012/016 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 017/020-010/018-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Jul a 04 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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