Viendo archivo del sábado, 18 junio 2005

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jun 18 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 169 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Jun 2005

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 780 (S08E52) produced several low C-class flares. Occasional surging and numerous brightness fluctuations were noted in this D-type group throughout the period. A C1 flare was also observed in Region 779 (S18W32). Region 779 is a moderate size E-type group in slow growth.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Both Regions 779 and 780 are capable of C-class activity with a small chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains elevated at near 500 km/s, but is in slow decline. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today. The greater than 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous orbit remain elevated, but are slowly returning to background levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with the chance for isolated minor storm periods. Transient flow from the M4 flare and CME on 16 June may create occasional storm periods on 19 June. Predominantly quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 20 and 21 June.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Jun a 21 Jun
Clase M10%10%10%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       18 Jun 090
  Previsto   19 Jun-21 Jun  090/090/090
  Media de 90 Días        18 Jun 093
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 17 Jun  009/014
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 18 Jun  008/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  015/020-010/012-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Jun a 21 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%20%15%
Tormenta Menor15%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%25%20%
Tormenta Menor20%15%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%01%

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