Viendo archivo del viernes, 6 mayo 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 May 06 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 126 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 May 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 756 (S08W79)
produced an M1 x-ray flare at 06/1128 UTC. This region continues to
slowly decay. Region 758 (S07E23) generated a more significant
flare, a C8/2f at 06/1705 UTC. Although smaller in x-ray output,
this flare was of long-duration and associated with a type II sweep
and an apparent Earth-directed CME. Both of these regions also
produced smaller flares over the past 24 hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class activity is expected in Regions 756 and 758.
Another small M-class flare is possible.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A small Sudden Impulse
(8 nT) was observed by the Boulder magnetometer at 08/1306 UTC. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. Increased
activity is possible on 08 and 09 May in response to the CME
discussed in Part IA. The field may also be affected by a coronal
hole high speed stream beginning on 09 May.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 May a 09 May
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 May 110 Previsto 07 May-09 May 105/095/090 Media de 90 Días 06 May 093
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 May 003/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 May 005/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 010/012-020/025-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 May a 09 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 50% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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