Viendo archivo del domingo, 1 mayo 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 May 01 2200 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 121 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 May 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was low. A C1.9 flare occurred at
01/1638 UTC from a region on the east limb at approximately S12.
Region 756 (S06W11) has decayed slightly in area. No new regions
were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region
756.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels with an
isolated major storm period between 01/0300 and 01/0600 UTC. Solar
wind at ACE remained between approximately 600 km/s and 700 km/s.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with an isolated minor storm
period possible on 02 May. On 03 - 04 May, conditions are expected
to decrease to quiet to unsettled as the coronal hole high speed
stream moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 May a 04 May
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 May 112 Previsto 02 May-04 May 110/110/110 Media de 90 Días 01 May 091
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Apr 013/021 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 May 020/026 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 018/020-008/015-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 May a 04 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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