Viewing archive of viernes, 29 abril 2005

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Apr 29 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 119 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Apr 2005

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 756 (S06E17) produced the largest flare of the period, a C1/Sf event that occurred at 29/2041Z. White light analysis indicates there was a decrease in sunspot area during the period. This region remains magnetically complex with a delta structure to the south and another apparent in the trailing central portion of the large spot. Region 757 (S05W10) underwent a slight increase in sunspot area. The CME on the eastern limb seen in LASCO imagery appears to be from a back sided source. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 756 continues to have the potential to produce an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels today. An isolated active period occurred between 29/1800 and 2100Z due to a solar sector boundary crossing and a sustained southward Bz.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels for 29 April with isolated active periods possible in the nighttime sectors. Active to minor storming conditions are expected on 01 May due to the anticipated onset of a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. Peak solar wind speeds are expected on 02 May which may lead to isolated periods of major storming.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Apr a 02 May
Clase M30%30%30%
Clase X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       29 Apr 105
  Previsto   30 Apr-02 May  105/105/110
  Media de 90 Días        29 Apr 091
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 28 Apr  001/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 29 Apr  006/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May  010/012-020/020-025/040
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Apr a 02 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor10%15%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%15%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor10%20%40%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%20%

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