Viendo archivo del sábado, 23 abril 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Apr 23 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 113 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Apr 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. There are
just a couple of very small and simple sunspot groups on the visible
disk. Occasional bright surges were observed on the southeast limb
late in the period. The associated active region is expected to
rotate into view on 24 April. No other activity of note was
observed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. A new region rotating on the east limb near S05 may
slightly elevate activity levels over the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
conditions late in the period. A coronal hole high speed stream has
rotated into a geoeffective position. Solar wind speed gradually
increased to near 600 km/s. The IMF Bz was generally northward, but
occasional brief southward excursions occurred late in the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on 24
and 25 April. Predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled
periods are expected on 26 April as the high speed stream rotates
out of a geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Apr a 26 Apr
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Apr 079 Previsto 24 Apr-26 Apr 080/085/085 Media de 90 Días 23 Apr 090
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Apr 007/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Apr 008/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 010/020-008/010-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Apr a 26 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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