Viendo archivo del lunes, 14 marzo 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Mar 14 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 073 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Mar 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours due to
a C1 x-ray event at 0708 UTC from Region 741 (N12W68). Region 742
(S05W24) is currently the largest group on the disk (320 millionths)
but is no longer growing and only managed to produce a few low-level
B-class events.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region
742 or 741.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. There was a
minor storm period at mid-latitude from 0000-0300 UTC, and a minor
storm period based on the estimated planetary K index from 1200-1500
UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels at the
beginning of the period, but dropped below 1000 PFU after 13/2305
UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days (15-17
March).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Mar a 17 Mar
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Mar 112 Previsto 15 Mar-17 Mar 110/110/105 Media de 90 Días 14 Mar 098
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Mar 004/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Mar 020/024 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 010/012-010/010-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Mar a 17 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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