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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jan 20 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 020 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Jan 2005

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 720 (N14W70) produced an X7/2b flare at 0701 UTC, which was accompanied by Type II and Type IV radio sweeps. There is one image from the LASCO C2 coronagraph which shows an associated CME off the northwest limb at 0654 UTC. However, shortly after this observation the coronagraph data became difficult to use due to high levels of energetic particles. Region 720 continues to be large, with a sheared magnetic delta configuration along an east-west polarity inversion line.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 720 continues to have potential for producing an additional major flare. The location of Region 720 on the disk also implies that there is a fair chance for more energetic particles in association with future major flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active during the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds were elevated (700-900 km/s) from the start of the interval up through at least 0700 UTC, after which the ACE real-time SWEPAM data became unusable due to elevated energetic particle flux. The interplanetary magnetic field, however, was weak with fluctuations between -4 nT to +6 nT. A new injection of protons was observed at 0650 UTC in association with the X7 flare. The greater than 100 MeV protons rose rapidly and attained a maximum of 652 PFU at 0710 UTC. The 100 MeV flux has been declining steadily since then. This high flux level makes this the largest greater than 100 MeV proton event observed since October 1989. A greater than 10 MeV proton event was in progress at the time of the new injection, but the new particles quickly increased the flux from initial values around 40 PFU to a peak value in the past 24 hours of 1860 PFU at 0810 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled to active for the next three days. Today's CME (associated with the X7 flare) is not expected to produce anything more than a glancing blow due to its direction away from the Sun-Earth line. The greater than 10 MeV flux is expected to remain above event threshold for at least another 24 hours.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Jan a 23 Jan
Clase M90%90%80%
Clase X30%30%20%
Protón99%80%50%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       20 Jan 123
  Previsto   21 Jan-23 Jan  115/105/095
  Media de 90 Días        20 Jan 108
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 19 Jan  031/062
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 20 Jan  012/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan  015/025-015/020-010/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Jan a 23 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%35%20%
Tormenta Menor20%20%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%15%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%35%20%
Tormenta Menor20%20%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%15%10%

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