Viendo archivo del miércoles, 19 enero 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jan 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 019 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Jan 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 720 (N14W56) produced
an X1/2n flare at 19/0822 UTC. This flare was similar to previous
major flares in this region with strong radio output and a CME
directed mostly to the northwest. Further decay in the region has
occurred, although it remains fairly large and magnetically complex.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 720 retains the potential for another major
event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic disturbance remained in progress at the active to
severe storm level. The greater than 100 MeV proton event has ended:
start 17/1215 UTC, 28 pfu peak at 17/1700 UTC, and end 18/2205 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event remains in progress but is
decaying: start 16/0210 UTC and 5040 pfu peak at 17/1750 UTC. Proton
fluxes have decreased enough for the GOES electron sensors and ACE
SWEPAM instruments to again provide reliable data. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at active to severe storm levels. Storm
intensity is expected to taper off over the next 48 hours, as is the
10 MeV proton event, barring another significant solar event in
Region 720.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Jan a 22 Jan
| Clase M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 99% | 90% | 80% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Jan 133 Previsto 20 Jan-22 Jan 130/120/110 Media de 90 Días 19 Jan 106
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Jan 035/072 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Jan 050/080 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 040/050-020/030-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Jan a 22 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 60% | 50% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 20% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 70% | 60% | 50% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 20% | 10% |
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