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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jan 18 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 018 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Jan 2005

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 720 (N13W44) continued to flare; however, the largest event in the past 24 hours was an M4/2n at 18/1551 UTC. Although the region remains large and magnetically complex, further sunspot restructuring and decay is evident since yesterday. New Region 724 (S12W07) emerged on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 720, although diminishing in complexity, still has sufficient potential for another major solar event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to severe storm levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event remains in progress with a start time of 16/0210 UTC and a peak flux of 5040 pfu observed at 17/1750 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV proton event also remains in progress with a start time of 17/1215 UTC and a 28 pfu peak flux observed at 17/1700 UTC. GOES spacecraft electron sensors and ACE SWEPAM instruments remain affected by the energetic proton event.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at active to severe storm levels for the next 24 to 48 hours. The arrival of the CME associated with the X3 flare on 17 January has not yet been observed but is expected to contribute to geomagnetic activity over the next 12 to 24 hours. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end by early on 19 January, barring a new major flare. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to remain in progress through late 19 to early 20 January.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Jan a 21 Jan
Clase M90%90%90%
Clase X30%20%10%
Protón80%75%50%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       18 Jan 124
  Previsto   19 Jan-21 Jan  120/110/100
  Media de 90 Días        18 Jan 107
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 17 Jan  027/063
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 18 Jan  040/080
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  030/075-020/030-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Jan a 21 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%25%25%
Tormenta Menor60%50%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo10%25%50%
Tormenta Menor70%60%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%15%05%

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