Viendo archivo del miércoles, 12 enero 2005

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jan 12 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 012 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Jan 2005

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A C1.1 flare occurred at 11/2329Z from Region 718 (S07E19). Region 718 and 720 (N13E37) have exhibited significant growth in both area and number of spots. Region 720 increased its area from 50 millionths to 420 millionths since the last reporting period. However, both regions still maintain a beta magnetic structure and have been relatively quiet so far.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class activity. Region 720 is the most likely source for an M-class flare due to it continual growth.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm levels. Minor storm levels occurred due to the onset of a geoeffective coronal hole. Solar wind speed has increased from approximately 400 km/s to 700 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm levels possible on 13 January. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 14 January while quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 15 January as the high speed stream diminishes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Jan a 15 Jan
Clase M30%40%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       12 Jan 102
  Previsto   13 Jan-15 Jan  105/105/105
  Media de 90 Días        12 Jan 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 11 Jan  009/014
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 12 Jan  015/030
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan  010/020-010/015-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Jan a 15 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%15%
Tormenta Menor10%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%30%25%
Tormenta Menor20%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%01%

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