Viendo archivo del viernes, 12 noviembre 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Nov 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 317 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Nov 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity dropped to very low levels. Region 696
(N08W87) is in decay and rotating quietly around the west limb. A
weak Type II radio sweep (553 km/s) followed a B7 flare in Region
699 (S14E27). A faint CME was observed off the SE limb, which was
not Earth directed. No other significant changes were noted.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels with
major storm periods at high latitudes. This disturbance is due to
the CME activity on 09 and 10 November. Solar wind speed ranged from
550 to over 700 km/s, but was trending down during the latter half
of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event continues. The
proton event began on 07/1910Z, following the X2 flare on 07/1606Z.
The peak was 495 pfu at 08/0115Z and the current flux is ranging
between 20 - 30 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 13 November. Predominantly quiet
to unsettled levels are expected on 14 and 15 November. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event in progress now is expected to gradually
decline to below the event threshold on 13 November.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Nov a 15 Nov
| Clase M | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 99% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Nov 097 Previsto 13 Nov-15 Nov 090/090/095 Media de 90 Días 12 Nov 108
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Nov 022/023 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Nov 030/030 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 015/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Nov a 15 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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