Viendo archivo del lunes, 18 octubre 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Oct 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 292 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Oct 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Minor B-class activity was
observed during the latter half of the period. A CME erupted from
the northeast limb at approximately 17/2030Z. SXI imagery indicates
a new active region rotating near N07 on the east limb. Region 682
(S13W03) has shown slight decay in both area coverage and magnetic
complexity. Region 683 (S10E08) is a D type group in very slow
growth. New regions 685 (S05E26) and 686 (S20E43) were numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Regions 682
and 683. A new region rotating near N07 on the east limb may
increase solar activity levels in the coming days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled levels
late in the period. Solar wind speed remains below 350 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high,
and have been high since 14 October.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible on 19 and 20 October.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Oct a 21 Oct
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Oct 096 Previsto 19 Oct-21 Oct 100/105/110 Media de 90 Días 18 Oct 106
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Oct 000/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Oct 003/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 010/010-010/010-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Oct a 21 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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