Viendo archivo del domingo, 17 octubre 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Oct 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 291 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Oct 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity continued at very low levels with
occasional B-class flares. Region 682 (S14E10) has shown some decay
in white light area coverage, but still maintains minor magnetic
complexity. New Region 683 (S09E22) emerged as a C type group early
in the period. New Region 684 (S04E65) was also numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated minor C-class flares are possible.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Very stable solar wind conditions
persisted through the period. Solar wind speed declined to near 300
km/s and IMF Bz remains near zero. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was high, and has been at high levels
since 14 October.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible on 19 October due to a weak high speed solar wind stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Oct a 20 Oct
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Oct 092 Previsto 18 Oct-20 Oct 095/090/090 Media de 90 Días 17 Oct 106
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Oct 003/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Oct 003/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 008/010-010/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Oct a 20 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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