Viendo archivo del miércoles, 13 octubre 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Oct 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 287 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Oct 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. New Region 682
(S13E64) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 682 may produce isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels.
Minor geomagnetic storms early in the period may have been caused by
periods of consistently southward Bz followed by northward turning.
Real-time solar wind data recorded at ACE are suggestive of the
arrival of a co-rotating interaction region at about 0100 UTC, and
steady increase in solar wind speed starting at about 0800 UTC,
indicating the beginning of high speed solar wind stream from a
geoeffective coronal hole. Solar wind speed at the end of the
period was at 500 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 14 October from the residual
effects of coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. On 15-16
October, geomagnetic activity should subside to quiet to unsettled
levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Oct a 16 Oct
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Oct 087 Previsto 14 Oct-16 Oct 090/090/090 Media de 90 Días 13 Oct 110
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Oct 007/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Oct 030/035 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 015/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Oct a 16 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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