Viendo archivo del martes, 21 septiembre 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Sep 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 265 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Sep 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 672 (N04W86) produced a
C7.5 flare at 0836Z. Region 672 will rotate around the west limb on
22 September. Region 673 (S13W04), the only other sunspot group on
the visible disk, is in a slow decay phase. No new regions were
numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for C-class flares from Region 673 and 672
as it rotates around the west limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period between 0300Z to 0600Z. The active conditions followed a
period of southward IMF Bz. Solar wind plasma and magnetic field
measurements indicate the presence of a weak coronal hole stream.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with a possibility of reaching minor
storm levels on 22 September. Active to minor storm periods are
possible on the 22nd due to a weak high speed solar wind stream and
the expected impact of a CME that occurred late on 19 September.
Levels are expected to return to quiet to unsettled with isolated
active periods on 23-24 September.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Sep a 24 Sep
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Sep 095 Previsto 22 Sep-24 Sep 090/090/090 Media de 90 Días 21 Sep 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Sep 008/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Sep 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 020/025-010/015-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Sep a 24 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 01% |
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