Viendo archivo del viernes, 17 septiembre 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Sep 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 261 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Sep 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. X-ray flux has
remained at background levels. Surging was observed from Region 673
(S13E51), and the region grew slightly over the period to 320
millionths in white light. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 672 (N05W29) and 673 are capable of C-class
flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels, most likely
caused by the increased solar wind from a geoeffective coronal hole.
Solar wind speed at ACE began to diminsh around 0900 UTC and was at
approximately 450 km/s at the end of the period. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Sep a 20 Sep
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Sep 105 Previsto 18 Sep-20 Sep 105/105/100 Media de 90 Días 17 Sep 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Sep 014/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Sep 015/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 010/015-010/012-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Sep a 20 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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