Viendo archivo del sábado, 21 agosto 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Aug 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 234 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Aug 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Occasional brightness
fluctuations were noted, but no flare activity occurred. Region 661
(N07W33) contains minor magnetic complexity and white light area
coverage of over 450 millionths, but has been stable for the past 48
hours. Region 663 (N11E52) has rotated fully into view as an
elongated beta spot group with some minor magnetic mixing. Region
664 (S10E25) exhibited considerable growth this period and also
displays some minor mixing. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with isolated minor storm
periods. The disturbed periods are due to a slightly elevated solar
wind speed (near 500 km/s) and predominantly southward IMF Bz.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Aug a 24 Aug
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Aug 120 Previsto 22 Aug-24 Aug 120/120/120 Media de 90 Días 21 Aug 109
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Aug 009/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Aug 020/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 015/015-012/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Aug a 24 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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