Viendo archivo del viernes, 20 agosto 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Aug 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 233 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Aug 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 656 (S13,L=87),
which is behind the west limb, produced a C2.1 at 19/2105 UTC and a
C2.8 flare at 20/0107 UTC. Both events were long duration flares.
Regions 661 (N08W19), 662 (N13E00) and 663 (N10E67) all exhibited
slight growth in size over the period, with stable magnetic
complexity. New spots have appeared on the east limb next to Region
663. Further observations will determine if these spots are part of
Region 663. New Region 664 (S11E40) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 661 may produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active from the effects of a
small geoeffective coronal hole.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with possible active conditions
on 22 August from the effects of a coronal hole moving into
geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Aug a 23 Aug
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Aug 121 Previsto 21 Aug-23 Aug 120/115/110 Media de 90 Días 20 Aug 109
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Aug 003/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Aug 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 008/008-008/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Aug a 23 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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