Viendo archivo del sábado, 14 agosto 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Aug 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 227 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Aug 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity remained at high levels today. Region
656 (S13W35) produced multiple M-class flares today. There were two
major flares reported during the period, an M7/2n event at 14/0544Z
and an M5/2n occurring at 14/1343Z. SOHO/LASCO imagery depicts
several CMEs that all appear to have a solar westward component.
This region continues to exhibit a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
structure with some decay in the sunspot area seen over the period.
The remaining active regions were quiescent throughout the period.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 656 remains capable of producing
further major flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak shock
passed the ACE spacecraft at approximately 13/2200Z that is presumed
to be from the faint halo CME that was observed late on 10 August.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout
the period. Isolated active conditions are possible late on 16 and
through 17 August due to glancing blows from the CME activity seen
today.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Aug a 17 Aug
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Aug 149 Previsto 15 Aug-17 Aug 150/145/145 Media de 90 Días 14 Aug 108
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Aug 005/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Aug 005/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 010/010-012/015-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Aug a 17 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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