Viendo archivo del jueves, 22 julio 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jul 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 204 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Jul 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 652 (N08E06)
produced a M9.1 flare at 22/0032 UTC as well as several C-class
flares from 0633 to 0808 UTC. A CME was observed shortly after the
M9 flare on LASCO emerging southward, although it was not earthward
directed. Two coronal mass ejections occurred simultaneously to
form a faint full-halo CME observed on LASCO imagery. These CMEs
may be associated with one or more of the previously mentioned
C-class flares. Region 652 was observed to decay slightly over the
past 24 hours while maintaining its beta-gamma-delta magnetic
classification. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 652 maintains its potential to produce
major flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. A geomagnetic sudden
impulse was observed at 1028 UTC with a 25 nanoTesla deviation.
Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions have been observed since
the sudden impulse. Solar wind speed at ACE steadily increased
after the sudden impulse from 400 km/s to 700 km/s. Bz maintained a
steady southward orientation, up to as much as -19 nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active tomorrow (23 July) from the continued
effects of the CME arrival already observed, and the possible
arrival of another CME shock on late 23 July from the CME observed
on LASCO today. Activity should subside to quiet to unsettled
levels on 24-25 July.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Jul a 25 Jul
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Jul 173 Previsto 23 Jul-25 Jul 170/160/160 Media de 90 Días 22 Jul 098
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Jul 005/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Jul 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 020/025-010/015-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Jul a 25 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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