Viendo archivo de martes, 20 julio 2004

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jul 20 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 202 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Jul 2004

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels today. Region 652 (N10E32) produced an M8/3b major flare at 20/1232Z with an associated Tenflare of 3000 sfu's. A Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 485 km/s and a Type IV also accompanied the flare. The C6/Sf flare that occurred at 20/1126Z in conjunction with the flare mentioned above produced what appears as a full halo CME signature on LASCO C3 imagery. The delta structure seen as the dominate intermediate spot remains intact and the magnetic classification continues to exhibit beta-gamma-delta properties. Region 652 continues to show growth in spot area which now exceeds 1600 millionths in white light. Region 649 (S10W27) continues to show decay and was limited to C-class flare activity today. Delta structures are evident in the leading polarity spot cluster while yesterday's trailing polarity delta spot is no longer discernible. A significant and continued loss of spot area was again seen over the past 24 hours. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 652 is capable of producing further major flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels on 21 and 22 July. A shock passage from the combination of the C6 and M8 x-ray flares today is expected to pass the ACE spacecraft early on 23 July.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Jul a 23 Jul
Clase M75%75%75%
Clase X30%30%30%
Protón15%20%25%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       20 Jul 175
  Previsto   21 Jul-23 Jul  180/175/170
  Media de 90 Días        20 Jul 098
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 19 Jul  011/009
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 20 Jul  008/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul  008/008-010/012-025/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Jul a 23 Jul
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%40%
Tormenta Menor05%10%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%15%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%20%45%
Tormenta Menor05%15%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%15%

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