Viendo archivo de lunes, 19 julio 2004

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jul 19 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 201 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Jul 2004

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 649 (S10W13) was limited to C-class flare activity today. The largest was a C4/Sf flare that occurred at 19/0533Z. This region is in decay and much deterioration has been observed in the delta structure in the dominant trailing spot. A second delta spot is evident just east of the dominate lead spot which has changed little since yesterday. The spot area has decreased 140 millionths in white light observations. Region 652 (N05E45) was also limited to low level C-class flare activity although SXI x-ray imagery indicates a near continuous surging in the northern quadrant of region continually bleeding off energy and possibly suppressing major flare activity. The consensus of white light area coverage for this region is currently observed at over 1500 millionths with a well defined intermediate delta spot. Region 653 (S14E45) has shown continued growth during the past 24 hours although it has been fairly quiescent throughout the period. An eruptive prominence occurred at 19/0910Z on the west solar limb at S12 which produced a weak structured CME that does not appear to be Earth directed. A second CME was seen shortly afterward on the northwest solar limb that is believed to be back sided. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Regions 649 and 652 both remain capable of producing isolated major flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled levels. An active period was observed at the Boulder magnetometer between 19/0300 and 0600Z in conjunction with sustained southward Bz field values. A subsequent active period was observed between 19/1500 and 1800Z which was in response to a solar sector boundary crossing.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Isolated active levels are possible with the potential of transient activity on 20 and 21 July due to the recent major flares from Region 649.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Jul a 22 Jul
Clase M65%65%65%
Clase X30%30%30%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       19 Jul 170
  Previsto   20 Jul-22 Jul  170/165/165
  Media de 90 Días        19 Jul 098
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 18 Jul  006/009
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 19 Jul  006/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul  010/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Jul a 22 Jul
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor10%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor10%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%

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