Viendo archivo del sábado, 17 julio 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jul 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 199 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Jul 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels. Region 649 (S10E13)
continues to produce M and X-class flare activity. The largest
flare of the period was an X1/1f impulsive flare that occurred at
17/0757Z. Region 649 also produced an M2/1n event at 17/1651Z.
Minor radio bursts accompanied both flares. LASCO imagery shows
most of the CME plasma structure directed towards the eastern solar
hemisphere. Region 652 (N05E71) appears fairly ominous in white
light with 750 millionths of sunspot area. This region has produced
several C-class flares today and remains too close to the solar
eastern limb to determine accurate magnetic structure. Region 653
(S14E71) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. ACE
data indicates that a shock passed the instrument at approximately
16/2100Z. This transient is believed to have been the result of the
weak signature, full halo CME activity seen on 13 July. Higher
latitudes experienced major storm conditions between 17/0000 and
0300Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. There is a chance
for isolated active to minor storm conditions with further transient
activity resulting from the multitude of major flares seen over the
past several days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Jul a 20 Jul
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Jul 149 Previsto 18 Jul-20 Jul 150/150/145 Media de 90 Días 17 Jul 098
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Jul 008/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Jul 024/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 012/015-012/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Jul a 20 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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