Viendo archivo del miércoles, 14 julio 2004

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jul 14 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 196 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Jul 2004

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 646 (N12W72) produced an impulsive M6/1n flare at 0523 UTC. The event was accompanied by weak radio bursts, and there was no associated CME visible in the LASCO coronagraph data. The group appears to be decaying and was less active today than it was yesterday. Region 649 (S10E53) continues to be the largest group on the disk and managed to produce one M-flare, an M1/Sf at 1816 UTC. The size of the group is about the same as yesterday, but the region does appear to have a small magnetic delta configuration in the dominant trailer spots, and this appears to be the primary location for occasional flare activity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate, with regions 646 and 649 the most likely sources. There continues to be a slight chance for an additional, major flare event from Region 646.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed showed a steady decline during the past 24 hours with values around 450 km/s at forecast issue time.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours (15 July). Generally unsettled with some active periods at high latitudes is expected for the 2nd day (16 July). A return to predominantly unsettled is expected for the 3rd day (17 July).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Jul a 17 Jul
Clase M60%60%60%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       14 Jul 138
  Previsto   15 Jul-17 Jul  140/140/135
  Media de 90 Días        14 Jul 098
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 13 Jul  011/016
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 14 Jul  010/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  010/012-012/020-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Jul a 17 Jul
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%35%30%
Tormenta Menor15%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%35%30%
Tormenta Menor15%20%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%05%

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