Viendo archivo del lunes, 26 abril 2004

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Apr 26 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 117 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 Apr 2004

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z

Solar activity was low. There was only one C-class event during the past 24 hours, a C2/Sf from Region 599 (N16E15) at 0242 UTC. Although this region emerged rapidly yesterday, the past 24 hours have see a noticeable decrease in spot area, flare production, and overall brightness of the region. New Region 600 (N18W06) emerged on the disk today as a small beta-type sunspot group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low for the next three days. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Mostly quiet conditions prevailed early in the day as solar wind signatures showed a gradual declining trend in solar wind velocity with very weak interplanetary magnetic field, up until around 1520 UTC. Beginning around 1520 UTC a compression wave followed by some transient flow was observed: density, velocity, temperature and magnetic field all increased over a few minutes, and Bz showed a rotation over 2-3 hours from +5 to around -7 nT. The geomagnetic field responded by an increase to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next 24 hours (27 April). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail for the second and third days (28-29 April).
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 Apr a 29 Apr
Clase M15%15%15%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       26 Apr 100
  Previsto   27 Apr-29 Apr  100/095/090
  Media de 90 Días        26 Apr 107
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 25 Apr  007/012
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 26 Apr  007/007
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr  010/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 Apr a 29 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%15%15%
Tormenta Menor15%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%20%20%
Tormenta Menor20%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%05%05%

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