Viendo archivo del domingo, 25 abril 2004

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Apr 25 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 116 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Apr 2004

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 599 (N16E28) produced an M2/1N flare today at 0537 UTC, as well as a number of smaller, C-class events. The group continued to grow today, and shows some magnetic complexity, particularly just behind the large leader spot where smaller spots of opposite polarity are in close proximity. Most of the flare brightenings occurred along an east-west inversion line in the mid-to-trailing portion of the region. Region 536 (S08W36) is still the largest group on the disk, but was quiet and appears to be slowly decaying.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an additional, isolated M-class event during the next three days from Region 599.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled. There was an isolated active period at high latitudes from 0600-0900 UTC. Solar wind data show continuation of a weak, high-speed stream, with velocities ranging mostly between 500-550 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field should persist at the current, mostly unsettled levels for the next 24-36 hours (26 April to partway through 27 April). A decrease is expected to begin partway through the 2nd day (27 April) and quiet to unsettled levels should prevail on the third day (28 April).
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Apr a 28 Apr
Clase M35%35%35%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       25 Apr 107
  Previsto   26 Apr-28 Apr  110/110/110
  Media de 90 Días        25 Apr 107
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 24 Apr  007/011
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 25 Apr  010/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  012/012-010/010-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Apr a 28 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%20%15%
Tormenta Menor20%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%30%25%
Tormenta Menor25%20%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%10%05%

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