Viendo archivo del viernes, 23 abril 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Apr 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 114 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Apr 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 597 (S08W91)
produced an M1 at 1150 UTC, as well as numerous C-class flares. The
region is currently rotating out of view. Region 596 (S08W09) is the
largest group on the disk but was quiet and stable during the past
24 hours, and appears to be slowly declining.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-flare from
either Region 597 (next 24 hours only), or from Region 596.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with a
period of minor storm levels at high latitudes. Real-time solar wind
data from ACE indicate the presence of a weak, high-speed stream
with velocities around 400-450 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with occasional active periods
during the next three days as the high speed stream is expected to
persist.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Apr a 26 Apr
| Clase M | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Apr 115 Previsto 24 Apr-26 Apr 115/115/115 Media de 90 Días 23 Apr 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Apr 002/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Apr 015/019 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 012/015-012/015-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Apr a 26 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 15% |
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