Viendo archivo del lunes, 2 febrero 2004

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Feb 02 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 033 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Feb 2004

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z

Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares during the past 24 hours, a C2 at 0759 UTC from Region 547 (S09W26), and a C1 at 1124 UTC from a region very close to the east limb at latitude N05. Region 547 and 549 (N14E42) are the largest groups on the disk but are still relatively small and stable. Region 550 (S08W14) and Region 551 (S06E63) were assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days (2-4 February). There is a slight chance for an isolated M-flare from Region 547 or Region 549.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. An initially quiet to unsettled condition gave way to about six hours of storming between 0600-1200 UTC. The storming was associated with high speed solar wind and some moderately negative interplanetary magnetic field component Bz (-5 to -10). The field has been mostly active since 1200 UTC. The solar wind speed has shown a slowly increasing trend since 0500 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next two days (3-4 February), and should decline to mostly unsettled with occasional active periods for the third day (5 February). The enhanced activity is expected from favorably positioned coronal holes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Feb a 05 Feb
Clase M20%20%20%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       02 Feb 102
  Previsto   03 Feb-05 Feb  105/105/105
  Media de 90 Días        02 Feb 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 01 Feb  010/011
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 02 Feb  025/025
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb  015/020-015/020-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Feb a 05 Feb
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%30%30%
Tormenta Menor20%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%30%30%
Tormenta Menor25%25%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%15%15%

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