Viendo archivo del miércoles, 28 enero 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jan 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 028 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Jan 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There were no flares in
the past 24 hours. The solar disk was devoid of spots for most of
the day, but towards the end of the period there was evidence for a
new active region (or regions) rotating on the disk at latitudes
S10-S15, near the location where old Region 536 would be expected.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There should be a slow rise in background levels as the new
active region (or regions) rotate into view.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Solar wind velocity showed a gradual increase beginning around 0100
UTC, and this was accompanied by frequent fluctuations in the
interplanetary Bz component in the range of about -7 nT to +7 nT.
These signatures together with a consistent 'away' polarity in the
solar phi angle all suggest that the activity was driven by
favorably positioned positive polarity coronal hole. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods for the next
two days (29-30 January). An increase to unsettled to active is
expected on the third day (31 January) as another coronal hole
rotates into favorable position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Jan a 31 Jan
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Jan 089 Previsto 29 Jan-31 Jan 100/105/105 Media de 90 Días 28 Jan 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Jan 013/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Jan 015/019 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 010/015-010/015-010/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Jan a 31 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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