Viendo archivo del sábado, 24 enero 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jan 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 024 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Jan 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels today. A couple
very minor B-class x-ray flares became the extent of today's
observed activity. All four active regions have continued to decay.
Regions 540 (S14W81), 542 (N10W61), and 543 (S16W60) are now H-type
alpha spot groups. Region 544 (N08W44) has lost all penumbra and
appears to be a B-type beta spot group. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels. There is a chance for an isolated low level
C-class flare from Region 544.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A brief period
of minor storming occurred at the middle latitudes between 24/0900
and 1200Z. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions are possible with southward oscillations in the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Jan a 27 Jan
| Clase M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 Jan 108 Previsto 25 Jan-27 Jan 105/100/100 Media de 90 Días 24 Jan 133
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 Jan 021/038 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 Jan 015/017 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 012/012-008/010-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Jan a 27 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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