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Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jan 22 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 022 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Jan 2004

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels today. An impressive filament eruption, seen on SOHO/EIT imagery, was observed early in the period in the solar northwestern quadrant of the disk. An associated CME appears too much north-west directed to become geoeffective. A previous filament eruption (early on 21 Jan) and the associated CME that occurred in the solar southeastern quadrant may produce a weak geoeffective glancing blow. Flare activity was limited to a few low level B-class flares today. Regions 540 (S14W48) and 544 (N08W17) retain a gamma magnetic structure while Regions 542 (N10W29) and 543 (N16W34) appear to have lost their associated gamma features. Decay in penumbral coverage or magnetic structure appeared to be the theme in all the active spotted regions during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels. A shock passage was observed to pass the ACE spacecraft around 22/0100Z as the solar wind speed jumped from 475 km/s to near 700 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field held primarily north until near 22/0900Z when a sudden southward movement (which remained south thereafter for several hours) occurred and the ensuing severe storm conditions were seen at all latitudes. A 33 nT sudden impulse was recorded on the Boulder magnetometer at 22/0140Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels early in the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels. Higher latitudes may experience isolated minor storm conditions into 23 Jan due to today's shock passage. A glancing blow from the CME resulting from the filament eruption in the solar southeastern quadrant earlier on 21 Jan may produce brief minor storm conditions on 24 Jan. The remainder of the period should experience predominantly unsettled to isolated active levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Jan a 25 Jan
Clase M20%20%20%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       22 Jan 122
  Previsto   23 Jan-25 Jan  120/120/115
  Media de 90 Días        22 Jan 136
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 21 Jan  008/012
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 22 Jan  035/065
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  015/025-010/015-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Jan a 25 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%20%20%
Tormenta Menor15%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%30%30%
Tormenta Menor20%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%

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