Viendo archivo del miércoles, 10 diciembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Dec 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 344 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Dec 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity continued very low. Only B-class events
occurred. Two new regions rotated onto the disk. Region 520 (N03E75)
is the apparent return of old Region 501, the producer of 11 M-class
flares last rotation. New Region 521 (S11E82) is a mature group with
penumbra on both the leader and follower spots.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels during
the past 24 hours. The ongoing high-speed solar wind stream reached
850 km/s (currently near 800 km/s) and remains strong and steady.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at GOES was high.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 72
hours. This is a continuing response to the high speed solar wind
stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Dec a 13 Dec
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Dec 089 Previsto 11 Dec-13 Dec 090/090/095 Media de 90 Días 10 Dec 136
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Dec 017/031 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Dec 030/040 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 025/035-025/035-020/035
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Dec a 13 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 45% | 45% | 50% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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